Algeria, a strategic partner of Italy, especially at the energy level, will go to the polls tomorrow for the presidential elections. The favorite is Abdelmadjid Tebboune, ready to obtain his second consecutive term after a change to the date of the vote that should benefit him. Approximately 24 million Algerians are called to the polls in a context of "constant erosion of human rights", as denounced by the opposition forces, who have called for a boycott of the vote, and several international organizations.
There are two opponents on the road to confirmation of the 78-year-old Tebboune, who officially presents himself as an independent but is actually supported by the main parties, including the National Liberation Front that led the fight for independence from France. Youssef Aouchiche, secretary of the Socialist Forces Front, the country's oldest opposition party, and Abdellah Hassan Cherif of the Movement for Society and Peace, the largest Islamic political force. Over 20 candidates who had expressed their intention to run for president were not admitted to the vote or forced to withdraw for various reasons.
Both Cherif and Aouchiche do not seem to be able to worry the president also because of the short time available for the electoral campaign. In March, in fact, Tebboune announced that the elections, traditionally held in December, would be rescheduled to "coincide with the end of the summer holidays and the start of the new school year", hoping to increase voter turnout. The president's detractors argue that he tried to hinder his rivals by coinciding the election campaign with the summer, when high temperatures discourage protests and the risk of strikes that could have damaged his image.
Turnout was less than 40% in the 2019 election, when the president took power, ending the Bouteflika era. The former 'master' of Algeria, who died on September 17, 2021, at the age of 84, was forced to resign after months of protests by the popular 'Hirak' movement that formed to counter his decision to run for a fifth term despite obvious health problems. Several human rights groups argue, however, that rights violations continued under Bouteflika's successor, criticized for the increased repression and what is considered an "authoritarian drift".
"In recent years, Algeria has experienced a steady erosion of human rights through the authorities' dissolution of political parties, civil society organizations and independent media outlets, along with a spike in arbitrary arrests and prosecutions based on false terrorism charges," said Amjad Yamin, Amnesty International's regional deputy director for the Middle East and North Africa.
Last July, 11 prominent opposition figures wrote in an open letter that "Algeria is in a more critical situation than before" and that the president had fueled an "authoritarian climate". The following month, 60 political activists were arrested, mostly from the Rally for Culture and Democracy. Last week, Fethi Ghares, national coordinator of the Democratic and Social Movement and among the faces of the 2019 uprising, was arrested along with his wife for "insulting the president".
The hydrocarbon-rich country relies essentially on agreements signed with Europe, which was looking for new sources of supply to make up for the halt imposed on gas supplies from Russia. This has allowed the government to increase social spending and postpone cuts in fuel subsidies. The predictability of the outcome of tomorrow's vote - explained Andrew Farrand, director for the Middle East and North Africa at geopolitical risk consultancy Horizon Engage and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council - is due in part to the fact that the president has increased political patronage, establishing a strong relationship with the military. "Every national institution of note has been co-opted and put to work as an arm of the campaign," he explained.
Hopes for significant democratic reform under Tebboune have been largely dashed. Despite his vision for a "new Algeria", his efforts have failed to change the fundamental structure of the regime. The army still plays a crucial role in the political life of the country, economic diversification to free Algeria from the 'yoke' of oil and gas revenues is blocked and the spaces of freedom for the political opposition have narrowed. The disillusionment of Algerians is reflected in the low turnout in recent elections, which has reached historic lows.
The country is also experiencing rising inflation and suffers from high unemployment rates, with a particularly strong impact on the younger segments of the population, who are increasingly disenchanted with the political system. This situation has led Tebboune to focus his second election campaign on the promise to improve the situation of young people, assuring that he will work to "strengthen purchasing power by raising wages and fighting corruption" and "guarantee food, health and water security", given the water scarcity affecting several areas of the Maghreb country.
